Trump Got His Tariffs, But Vietnam Has Its Quiet Answer

Trump got his tariff deal, but Vietnam might be responding through its currency.

On July 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with Vietnam. The deal comes just days before his new round of tariffs is set to start on July 9.

Here’s what we know so far:

Vietnam agreed to a 20% tariff on all its exports to the U.S., and a 40% tariff on goods that are shipped through Vietnam from other countries (like China) — a practice known as transshipment.

Vietnam will "OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES," meaning that "we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff," wrote Trump.

Trump said he spoke with Vietnamese leader Tô Lâm, calling him “an absolute pleasure” to deal with.

On the surface, this looks like a clear win for Trump. He gets higher tariffs, more U.S. exports, and a public commitment from Hanoi. But that’s only half the story.

While all eyes were on Washington, something else was happening in Hanoi, something far less visible, but potentially just as powerful.

Privately in Vietnam, quite a few people, including economists, said Vietnam has a secret weapon in trade negotiations: its currency.

If the Vietnamese đồng (VND) weakens against the U.S. dollar, Vietnamese exports automatically become cheaper for American buyers. That means even with a 20% tariff, U.S. importers might end up paying only slightly more — or in some cases, almost the same — as they did before.

For example, if a Vietnamese product used to cost $100 in the U.S., a 20% tariff would raise that to $120. But if the VND quietly drops by 10%, that product might only cost $90 before the tariff. Add the 20% tariff to that, and the final price becomes $108 — cheaper than $120.

This is called an exchange rate offset. In theory, a weaker currency can blunt the impact of tariffs. But in practice, only part of that currency drop gets passed on to buyers — often just 20–30%. So a 10% slide in the VND might reduce the effective tariff burden by just 2–3%.

Still, the idea holds. The more the VND slides, the less impact Trump’s tariffs may have — especially in export sectors where price matters most.

This tactic isn’t announced in press conferences. It doesn’t need approval from Congress. It’s quiet, legal, and hard to fight. Vietnam doesn’t even need to intervene — it just steps back and lets market forces weaken the currency.

And that might already be happening.

Officially, the VND has only fallen about 2.2% from January to May 2025. But some economists and exporters say the real-world impact feels much sharper — due to offshore currency trading, importer pricing behavior, and what’s known as a “dirty float,” where the central bank stays silent and lets the currency slide.

It’s a subtle move — but in global trade, subtlety is often more effective than shouting.